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MLB Preseason Predictions
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By Scott Siegler

It’s that time of year again. The snow is melting, the leaves are budding, and Major League Baseball teams will soon be home from spring training and ready to rumble in the 2011 baseball season. Similarly to the economic climate of the modern day, the gap between the teams rich with talent and the teams with scarce talent has grown wider over the offseason. There will definitely be some familiar faces in the playoffs. However, there are teams that are looking to make big steps from the 2010 season and other teams that are poised to regress out of play-off contention. I’ve picked my division winners and wild card teams that will be heading into the post season this October.

National League East

With the addition of Pitcher Cliff Lee in the offseason, it seems like a safe bet that the Philadelphia Phillies will be taking home the NL East pennant this year. However, the loss of power hitter Jason Werth who hit .296 with 27 home runs and 85 RBIs for them last season is a big one. His presence will be missed in that line-up as it continues to age and it makes one wonder just how efficient the Phillies offense can be without him. But with a starting pitching rotation consisting of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt, it’s not going to take an offensive juggernaut of a team to win games. The X-factor for the Phillies this season is their closer Brad Lidge. He’s had his struggles over the past couple of seasons (7.21 ERA, 1.81 WHIP in 67 games during the 2009 season) and it is crucial that he can close out the games that Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt are going to set him up for. The Atlanta Braves are a competitive ball club this year as well, but in the end I see pitching getting the job done for the Phillies.

National League Central

The NL Central was surprisingly dominated last season by the Cincinnati Reds, but that will not happen this season. The Reds are likely to turn in another solid season in 2011, but it is the Milwaukee Brewers that will take home the pennant. Major upgrades were made to the Brewers’ pitching with the additions of starters Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum. Adding those two to a staff that already had Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf in it definitely bodes well for improvement. In the bullpen, I see a big season coming from closer John Axford. He struck out an impressive 76 batters in 58 innings while sporting a 2.48 ERA and impressive 1.19 WHIP. He is only 27 years old and is only going to get better as he closes out games for the Brewers this season. The Brewers are a strong team offensively as well with the likes of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart forming a power nucleus in the heart of the Brewers batting order. The Brewers will be the team to beat in the NL Central this season.

National League West

I like the San Francisco Giants as the NL West winners this season. Sure, they are the defending World Series champs, but the most important ingredient to them winning the division is the San Diego Padres loss of slugger Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres were ready to burst into the realm of play-off contention with a very impressive showing in 2010 as they won 90 games. However, I doubt they’ll be able to turn in another 90 win season without their most productive bat. The Giants found a diamond in the rough with catcher Buster Posey who is looking to put up big numbers in his first full big league season and infielder Pablo Sandoval is looking to make a bounce back from a shaky sophomore season. And while the Giant offense isn’t something to behold, their pitching most certainly is. A starting rotation consisting of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and Barry Zito rivals that of the Philadelphia Phillies and with closer Brian Wilson icing the cake at the end of games I see no reason why the Giants won’t win their already uncompetitive division.

National league Wild Card

After missing the play-offs in 2009, the Atlanta Braves showed they were back among the top teams in 2010 winning 91 games. It was no fluke either. Players like Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, and Martin Prado are all still rising up to their maximum potential as players and this means that the Braves are only going to get better. A strong pitching staff consisting of Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens is a nice complement to the powerful offense. With the loss of starter Adam Wainwright, I believe the Braves will be able to outlast their biggest threat for the Wild Card in the St. Louis Cardinals and safely make the play-offs.

American League East

The AL East is by far the most competitive division in baseball. Last season, the Tampa Bay Rays won the pennant while the New York Yankees safely claimed the Wild Card spot and the Boston Red Sox were left out in the cold with a still impressive 89 win season despite an injury depleted roster. One can only wonder what could have been had team leaders like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury been healthy last season. This season, Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury are all healthy and ready to make another run at the play-offs in 2011. Only this time, outfielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez will be joining them. These two more than make up for the loss of third baseman Adrian Belte and catcher Victor Martinez. With the Rays and Yankees only getting worse this offseason with losses like Carl Crawford and Any Pettite, respectively, I believe the Red Sox will be the AL East champs, as they could have been if healthy last year, and have only improved since.

American League Central

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central last year and I see nothing in the way of a repeat this season. Outfielder Delmon Young enjoyed a breakout season in 2010 finishing with a .298 BA, 21 home runs, and an impressive 112 RBIs. Catcher Joe Mauer and the now healthy first baseman Justin Morneau are as steady as they come offensively and adding Young as a contributor alongside them only makes them more dangerous. Guys like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel bring a lot of potential to the middle of the Twin batting order as well. Their pitching is upgraded with the return of all star closer Joe Nathan who was unable to participate in the 2010 season due to an injury. A key to the Twins success will be the arm of pitcher Francisco Liriano. This guy can be electric but has struggled with consistency since Tommy John’s surgery a couple of seasons ago. Liriano was impressive in 2010 and I think the rising 27 year old will be at least as productive for the Twins again this season. I like the Twins in the AL Central this season because they bring a solid team to the table in a division that can’t compete with them.

American League West

The AL West only had one team finish above .500 last season. This season there will be two, but the winner will still be the Texas Rangers. While the Oakland A’s should have a successful season that ends with a record above .500, they still aren’t at the same caliber as the defending AL Champ Rangers. When there’s no room for a player like Michael Young in your infield that says something about a very strong defensive ball club coming into the season in 2011. Not to mention the major offensive threats coming from Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz who are both coming off of monster years. The addition of Adrian Beltre is what allows me to see the Rangers recovering from the loss of ace Cliff Lee and a powerful offense should be supportive enough for a young Ranger pitching staff that showed promise in the post season last year. Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson were both very impressive in 2010. The Rangers also added former ace Brandon Webb to their rotation, who brings a lot to the table if he can get over the injuries that have held him to just a few innings played in the past couple of seasons.

American League Wild Card

The New York Yankees had no trouble winning the Wild Card in 2010 and shouldn’t see much resistance getting it this year either. They are an offensive juggernaut and have a strong argument for the best lineup in baseball. Mark Teixiera, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriquez, Derek Jeter, nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson are all major threats to any pitching staff and the young Brett Gardner showed signs of becoming one with a .277 average and 47 stolen bases in 2010. The biggest issue with them is their pitching. C.C. Sabathia is a 20 game winner and one of the best pitchers in the American League, but after him things get dicey in the Yankee rotation. Besides Sabathia, they have Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett who both have tons of potential but finished with ERAs of 4.19 and 5.26, respectively in 2010. The additions of Mark Prior and Bartolo Colon were important for the Yankees and necessary to stay in contention with their division, however I still can’t see the Yankees doing as well as they did last season with this rotation. If Hughes and Burnett buckle down and have big seasons, the pennant is a definite possibility for the Yanks, but I see the Wild Card as the most likely result.


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